Super Bowl 44 as a Dow Jones Indicator
Prior to February 7th, there will be investors predetermining the Dow Jones Trend based on the outcome of Super Bowl 44. Will it be a bear (but not a Chicago Bear) market versus a bull market? Believers in the Super Bowl Indicator (SBI) accept that when an AFC team wins the Super Bowl then we can expect a decline in the stock market; whereas, if an NFC team wins then we can expect an increase in the stock market.
Including 2007, the SBI had an 80% success rate. Perhaps this is why Snopes.com, a site famous for debunking scams, could not give a definitive “True” or “False” answer. Instead, after some discussion about the SBI, the site leaves skepticism up to the reader. Snopes does post a warning from columnist Floyd Norris, “Anyone foolish enough… or credulous enough to believe a football game can forecast the stock market, probably should hire a money manager, or a psychiatrist, or both.”
At this point we are left wondering whether the Colts or the Saints will tell us if the recession will end soon or continue, perhaps stronger.
From the looks of the half-time show, you might want to invest in stocks for Diamond Foods and Dr Pepper Snapple among others. These companies will spend between $2.5M and $2.8M for a 30-second commercial to strengthen their branding. With THE WHO as the main attraction, the networks are indicating that an estimated 100 million viewers will be tuning in to be entertained by “rock’s most influential and robust performing artists.”
Now that’s an indicator you can bet on… GO TEAM GO!
Add comment February 3, 2010
Boston’s Snowfall – a Crystal Ball of Economic Indicators?
Investors often try to find foolproof ways to predict the future. These investors will use almost any indicator to give them that trading edge.
One such indicator is the Boston Snow Indicator. The indicator states that if Boston receives a white Christmas, then the following year will provide a “bull” market with rising stock prices. For example, in 1995 a white Christmas was apparently reflected in 1996 by a greater than 20% increase in the S&P 500. So how exact is this trend indicator?
As a guide, the Farmer’s Almanac gives the trend only a 50/50 “coin toss” accuracy rate. Tongue in cheek investors tend to call it the “BS” indicator for a reason – likely a snow globe would give you the same results as would a crystal ball.
Those of us in snowy Canada believe a white Christmas can, in fact, be an economic indicator. We do not need a fortune teller to know that the following seasonal businesses will do well during a snowfall…
- Ski and snowboard companies love natural snow to groom the hills
- Tourist companies that rent ice fishing huts and equipment
- Retail stores that sell snow blowers, shovels, snow brushes, lock deicers, and sidewalk salt
- Landscapers put blades on their trucks ready to plow the driveways
- Ice rinks come to life with hockey and figure skaters
- Energy providers heating dwellings against the outside chill
Smart investors know that each season brings its own special needs, and that local businesses are in tune with area-specific weather fluctuations. Investing in these businesses gives you increased returns, which in turn improves the local economy.
And that is something you can count on.
Add comment January 29, 2010
Subscribe to our Feed